Saturday, May 12, 2007

The Global Warming Paradigm Is About To Cave?

Interesting stuff from M. Simon over at the Astute Bloggers. It seems the science indicates that we are headed, almost inevitably, for a period of global cooling:

Reliapundit left a comment at my blog about this story which I think covers my theory of why we are seeing a big push for global warming taxes. [Emphasis added]

the political schmucks running agw crowd are NOT dumb.

they KNOW we are near the end of this warming cycle, and that's EXACTLY
why they are pushing so dang FURIOUSLY HARD to get agw taxes and regulations in
place ASAP ASAP ASAP - because in a few years it will be cooling --- they want
to hamper capitalism/free markets / industrialization/globalization --- it's
always been the left's long term goal - and they KNOW that it's NOW OR NEVER!

And now the rest of the story. NASA says the solar conveyor has slowed. The solar conveyor speed predicts the sunspot level two cycles in advance, about 20 years:

"Normally, the conveyor belt moves about 1 meter per second—walking pace," says Hathaway. "That's how it has been since the late 19th century." In recent years, however, the belt has decelerated to 0.75 m/s in the north and 0.35 m/s in the south. "We've never seen speeds so low."According to theory and observation, the speed of the belt foretells the intensity of sunspot activity ~20 years in the future. A slow belt means lower solar activity; a fast belt means stronger activity. The reasons for this are explained in the Science@NASA story Solar Storm Warning."The slowdown we see now means that Solar Cycle 25, peaking around the year 2022, could be one of the weakest in centuries," says Hathaway.

What does all this have to do with the climate on earth? Let us look at the climate when sunspot levels were low:

...the Sporer, Maunder, and Dalton minima coincide with the colder periods
of the Little Ice Age, which lasted from about 1450 to 1820. More recently it
was discovered that the sunspot number during 1861-1989 shows a remarkable
parallelism with the simultaneous variation in northern hemisphere mean
temperatures (2). There is an even better correlation with the length of the
solar cycle, between years of the highest numbers of sunspots. For example, the
temperature anomaly was - 0.4 K in 1890 when the cycle was 11.7 years, but +
0.25 K in 1989 when the cycle was 9.8 years. Some critics of the theory of
man-induced global warming have seized on this discovery to criticize the
greenhouse gas theory.

Gee, do you think?